Tesla has just secured an official permit to operate an internal ride-hailing fleet in California, but it’s not the long-awaited Robotaxi service—at least not yet. While many speculated that this move was the first step toward Tesla’s ambitious self-driving taxi network, the company has not even applied for an autonomous driving permit at this point.
A few weeks ago, reports emerged that Tesla had applied for a ride-hailing permit in California. While many assumed this was part of the company’s Robotaxi vision, it turns out that the permit was specifically for a chauffeur-operated ride-hailing service with human drivers.
Tesla had already been offering a similar service to its employees in the Bay Area. Now, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has confirmed that it has officially approved Tesla’s application.
According to Reuters, the CPUC granted Tesla a transportation charter-party carrier permit (TCP)—a license typically issued to companies operating chauffeur-driven services. This allows Tesla to own and control a fleet of vehicles and transport employees on pre-arranged trips.
Following this announcement, Tesla’s stock, which had dropped 5% earlier in the day, saw a slight 1.3% increase in after-hours trading. This fueled speculation that Tesla was getting closer to launching a robotaxi service. However, a CPUC spokesperson clarified that this permit does not allow Tesla to operate autonomous ride-hailing, nor has the company applied for such a permit yet.
What About Tesla’s Robotaxi Plan?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been promising a fully autonomous ride-hailing service for years, stating that vehicles built since 2016 would eventually be capable of self-driving at SAE Level 4 or 5—the highest levels of autonomy.
Most recently, Musk claimed that Tesla would introduce “unsupervised self-driving” in Texas and California by Q2 2025—which is just four months away. However, many experts have cast doubt on this timeline.
The likely reality is that Tesla’s first step into ride-hailing won’t be the grand self-driving revolution Musk has long promised. Instead, it will likely involve a geo-fenced internal fleet with teleoperation support, similar to what Waymo has been doing in California, Arizona, and Texas for years.
Tesla had previously announced that California and Texas would launch the robotaxi service simultaneously. However, in recent months, Tesla has shifted its focus to Austin, Texas, with Musk confirming that a ride-hailing fleet will launch there in June 2025.
California, meanwhile, seems to have taken a backseat in Tesla’s immediate plans. The company has been noticeably silent about its ride-hailing strategy in the state, suggesting that regulatory hurdles or technical challenges may have slowed progress.
How Likely Is a Tesla Robotaxi in 2025?
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently place the odds of Tesla launching robotaxis in California in 2025 at just 29%. This skepticism is based on several key factors:
- Tesla has not yet applied for an autonomous vehicle permit.
- Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is still not fully autonomous and requires driver supervision.
- The company’s ride-hailing fleet is currently human-driven—with no official timeline for transitioning to autonomous operations.
Given these challenges, Tesla will likely use its newly approved TCP permit to expand its ride-hailing test program in California to non-employees. This will allow the company to refine its ride-hailing infrastructure while continuing development on its self-driving software.
Tesla’s short-term ride-hailing strategy in California will likely focus on:
- Expanding its human-driven ride-hailing service beyond employees.
- Improving its ride-hailing system while working on FSD advancements.
- Preparing for an eventual robotaxi launch, but with teleoperation support rather than full autonomy at first.
While Tesla could still surprise the market with an unexpected robotaxi announcement, the most realistic scenario is that we will see an internal Tesla-operated ride-hailing fleet before we see fully autonomous robotaxis.
Tesla’s newly approved permit in California is an important step—but it’s not the game-changing robotaxi service that many have been anticipating. Instead, Tesla is taking a pragmatic approach, starting with a human-driven ride-hailing service before moving toward autonomy.
Whether Tesla can truly deliver unsupervised self-driving in 2025 remains to be seen. However, what’s clear is that the company is laying the groundwork for an eventual shift toward an autonomous ride-hailing future.
For now, Tesla fans and investors will have to wait and see if Musk’s bold promises finally materialize—or if this is just another moving of the goalpost for self-driving technology.
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